Florianópolis real estate market forecast for 2026: credit, the Selic rate, and new products

After several years of strong appreciation, Florianópolis enters 2026 with a key question for buyers and investors: what will happen to the cost of credit and to demand? The signals coming from industry bodies point to a year of solid demand, but at a pace that depends more on monetary policy than it has in the recent past.

The Selic rate, on a downward path

The most relevant macro factor for 2026 is the Selic rate. It closed 2025 at 15%, and the market projects a gradual decline toward the 12% to 12.5% range by year-end, according to expectations compiled by the Banco Central (Boletim Focus). This is no minor detail: each percentage point of reduction can ease the value of mortgage installments by as much as 8%, broadening access to credit precisely within the middle-class segment.

An expanding mortgage market

Mortgage lending in Brazil reached roughly R$ 324 billion over the past year, and the industry's projection points to growth toward nearly R$ 375 billion in 2026. The national market grew by about 10% in 2025 and expects the falling Selic rate to spur new launches. More credit available, and cheaper, tends to sustain demand.

Why Florianópolis moves to its own rhythm

Even so, the island does not depend on credit alone. Its Plano Diretor limits excessive high-rise development, and its geography constrains the supply of developable land: demand structurally outstrips supply. That is why Florianópolis tends to move to its own rhythm, largely decoupled from the national average, holding its value even through adverse cycles.

The products of 2026: efficiency and well-being

On the supply side, the industry anticipates a shift in the type of product. Following the guidelines of Sinduscon-SC, 2026 launches place the emphasis on energy efficiency and on the concept of housing designed for health and well-being — more green space, better ventilation, and sustainability certifications.

The takeaway for buyers and investors

The base-case scenario for 2026 combines more accessible credit as the Selic rate falls, a structurally limited supply, and a product that keeps rising in quality. The likely result is continued demand, with more moderate appreciation than at the recent peaks but still firm. It is worth keeping a close eye on the Selic rate calendar and on the build quality of each project.

Sources

• CBIC — Câmara Brasileira da Indústria da Construção: real estate market outlook for 2026.
• Sinduscon-SC — energy-efficiency and product guidelines for 2026.
• Banco Central do Brasil — Boletim Focus (Selic rate expectations).
• FipeZAP Index / Abecip — residential financing and prices 2025–2026.